This major shift in suburban women voters could be the key to the 2024 election

This major shift in suburban women voters could be the key to the 2024 election

WASHINGTON, DC – As coverage of the 2024 presidential election focuses on the words and actions of two men with very different ideologies, political strategists are watching for signs from a very different barometer.

“This election will be decided by women,” said Roma Daravi, a former communications official in the Trump White House. “We’ve seen Biden’s approval ratings decline across the board, and that’s no different for women.”

If this change happens in the suburbs, it would be an answer to prayers for the Trump campaign. In 2020, he lost the suburban women's voting bloc by a significant margin of 13 percentage points: 56-43 percent.

However, recent polls show President Joe Biden leading among suburban women by just six points. That's not a good sign for Democrats, considering they've consistently performed well with suburban women over the last decade. In 2014 they won 47 percent; In the 2016 presidential election, this share increased by 4 points to 51 percent. And in 2020 they reached a high of 56 percent.

GOP strategist Alice Stewart examines one factor that could turn the tide.

“If you talk to suburban women, they're worried about money issues,” Stewart tells CBN News. “Joe Biden has a record. The problem for him is that he is broken on key issues that matter to voters…Suburban women voters are the ones who buy groceries and often put gas in the gas tank. And when those bills are high.” They’re frustrated, they feel it firsthand.

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The Biden campaign is trying to shift attention in a different direction: specifically, abortion. A recent campaign ad aimed at Trump said: “It was Donald Trump who took away the freedoms of women in America…we are going to teach Donald Trump and the extreme MAGA Republicans a valuable lesson: Don't mess with women.” from America.”

It could be a successful tactic. While immigration and the economy are big political issues for Biden, a Wall Street Journal poll shows that abortion is by far the biggest issue for suburban voters in swing states. It's 39 percent, more than double the immigration rate of 16 percent, and then the economy drops to a meager 7 percent.

“It's almost ridiculous that the Democrats and Joe Biden are making this big pro-abortion case when they can't even define what a woman is,” Roma Daravi tells CBN News. “How can you be pro-women if you can’t define what a woman is?”

Still, Republicans know that this has not been a politically winning issue for them since the end of Roe v. Wade. To that end, Trump shied away from talking about abortion bans. “There has to be a way to thread this needle with Donald Trump standing firm and being pro-life, but also appealing to independent suburban voters who want to see access to abortion,” said GOP strategist Alice Stewart.

Another possible key for Trump would be to win over some of those suburban women who are told, “Keep your nose away from voters.” “I think the fear is that the decisions are with Donald Trump, Joe Biden or the couch will,” Stewart tells CBN News.

That's why both campaigns will be eyeing key suburbs in swing states on election night. In the primaries, Nikki Haley did significantly better than Trump among women in the suburbs around Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Atlanta.

“If Nikki Haley was able to attract some new voters to the Republican Party, then kudos to her because at the end of the day, we always knew they would end up voting for President Trump,” Daravi said.

That remains to be seen. What is certain, says Daravi, is that suburban voters will be crucial to who occupies the White House next year. “Women are smart. We run the world out here and I think we will definitely have a say in this upcoming election.”


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