Report identifies capacity gaps in macroeconomic modeling in Africa
A new study from the African Development Bank (AfDB) Group shows that Nigeria and African countries face large capacity gaps in macroeconomic modeling despite significant progress in forecasting, analysis and effective policy management. It is said that they are facing.
The report, Benchmark Macroeconomic Models for Effective Policy Management in Africa, was launched in Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa by the bank’s African Development Institute on the sidelines of the 2023 African Economic Conference.
The study looked at 31 of 54 African countries. To conduct the study, the Bank partnered with the Ministry of Central Banking and Finance and Planning, with support from the Nairobi-based African Economic Research Consortium.
Professor Kevin Chika Ulama, the Bank’s Chief Economist and Vice President, Economic Governance and Knowledge Management, said the report provides an inventory of African countries’ models and modeling capabilities as the continent faces recurring challenges. He stated that he is considering the relationship with the reality of development. He emphasized the importance of macroeconomic models as tools for countries to effectively understand and predict their own economic movements.
“But models are only attempts to logically simplify reality in order to inform decision-making under certain assumptions, situations and realities,” Ulama says.
“Therefore, the model is just as important as how closely it approximates reality and can inform appropriate decision-making in a particular situation,” he added.
Speaking at the launch, Shalom Gebredinger, Chief of Staff and Special Assistant to the Ethiopian Minister of Planning and Development, said the report is more than just data collection.
“This represents a shared commitment to transformative change. It is a call to action, urging us to rethink our approaches, question our assumptions and incorporate innovation into our policy efforts. ” she said.
Gebredinger said Africa faces formidable challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and its effects on climate change and droughts and floods.
Such challenges highlight “the critical importance for policymakers to understand and navigate the complex interplay of global, regional and regional economic dynamics,” he said. .
Dr. Eric Ogunleye, Manager of Policy and Management at the African Institute for Development Studies, presented the findings of the study.
The main objective was to take inventory of the types of models available in African countries and assess how they work and are fit for purpose, Ogunleye said.
He explained that the African Development Bank Group is keen to ensure that member countries’ capacity development initiatives are demand-driven and based on each country’s specific realities and circumstances.
“Before thinking about defining macroeconomic management capacity development initiatives to support regional member states, we believe it is appropriate to directly understand the problems and capacity gaps on the ground, which motivated this study. ” he said. .
Report identifies capacity gaps in macroeconomic modeling in Africa
A new study from the African Development Bank (AfDB) Group shows that Nigeria and African countries face large capacity gaps in macroeconomic modeling despite significant progress in forecasting, analysis and effective policy management. It is said that they are facing.
The report, Benchmark Macroeconomic Models for Effective Policy Management in Africa, was launched in Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa by the bank’s African Development Institute on the sidelines of the 2023 African Economic Conference.
The study looked at 31 of 54 African countries. To conduct the study, the Bank partnered with the Ministry of Central Banking and Finance and Planning, with support from the Nairobi-based African Economic Research Consortium.
the bank’s chief economist and vice president of economic governance and knowledge management;
Professor Kevin Chika Ulama said the report provides an inventory of models and modeling capabilities in African countries and examines their relevance to development realities as the continent faces recurring challenges. He said there was. He emphasized the importance of macroeconomic models as tools for countries to effectively understand and predict their own economic movements.
“But models are only attempts to logically simplify reality in order to inform decision-making under certain assumptions, situations and realities,” Ulama says.
“Therefore, the model is just as important as how closely it approximates reality and can inform appropriate decision-making in a particular situation,” he added.
Speaking at the launch, Shalom Gebredinger, Chief of Staff and Special Assistant to the Ethiopian Minister of Planning and Development, said the report is more than just data collection.
“This represents a shared commitment to transformative change. It is a call to action, urging us to rethink our approaches, question our assumptions and incorporate innovation into our policy efforts. ” she said.
Gebredinger said Africa faces formidable challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and its effects on climate change and droughts and floods.
Such challenges highlight “the critical importance for policymakers to understand and navigate the complex interplay of global, regional and regional economic dynamics,” he said. .
Dr. Eric Ogunleye, Manager of Policy and Management at the African Institute for Development Studies, presented the findings of the study. The main objective was to take inventory of the types of models available in African countries and assess how they work and are fit for purpose, Ogunleye said.
He explained that the African Development Bank Group is keen to ensure that member countries’ capacity development initiatives are demand-driven and based on each country’s specific realities and circumstances.
“Before thinking about defining macroeconomic management capacity development initiatives to support regional member states, we believe it is appropriate to directly understand the problems and capacity gaps on the ground, which motivated this study. ” he said. .
Source: guardian.ng